Reply to an email on emigration

Question:
I just read some pages on your site. I find it very interesting, your comparison of how well different countries would cope. I know you didn't analyse it, but I live in South Africa and have tried to ask one or two other people how South Africa would fare compared to other countries and only had one reply so far - he said from a resources point of view we are quite well off (relatively) - we have quite a low population density overall, (although in a crises I imagine millions of refugees might come here, we already have about 5 million Zimbabweans living here, by some estimates, because of that country's economic collapse) - we do have massive coal reserves (I think we rank just behind Australia in terms of coal reserves, if I'm not mistaken) and are the only country with a coal-to-liquid fuel thing going as of yet, we have warm climate etc. On the negative side, if other countries' governments are not going to plan adequately then believe me, ours will be even worse. We have been cursed with incompetent and corrupt, but highly paid ministers, who, for example, saw 10 years ago that we would need a lot of new power plants to adequately supply the country will electricity by 2007. Despite warnings, they sat on their hands and handed out massive bonuses to incompetent managers of our country's electricity supply commission (who were put there because of political affiliations, to a large extent) who didn't do their jobs properly. So now we have regular electricity rationing and they are proposing hiking electricity prices by over 50% for two straight years in a row so that they can accumulate capital to build new power plants. My point is that if they foresaw a power crisis 10 years in advance and did nothing, they certainly are not going to be able to adapt smartly to any peak oil crisis. The other problem in SA is social - we have a serious crime problem, (and not just the kind of crime that results from our high income inequality, but violent organised crime, rape etc) by most countries' standards, and I might imagine looting and theft would escalate greatly. Racial tensions might rise as well. As South Africans we've become quite apathetic because government here is quite arrogant and never accepts responsibility for sorting out crime or even the electricity fiasco that has made itself felt in the last year. On the other hand, there are aspects of South African lifestyle that one can't enjoy elsewhere - bigger houses and spaces, fantastic and convenient weather, scenery, relatively cheap food (although the price of food is starting to go through the roof) - all things that are perks. We can produce all kinds of foods and fruit and don't need to import certain fruits like Europeans do, for example. Although much of the country is dry, the eastern and northern parts of the country receive decent amounts of rainfall, and we get a lot of water from Lesotho. As an aside, Zimbabwe used to be a major food producing country ("the breadbasket of Africa") until Robert Mugabe went berserk - now the country relies on food aid. But in your opinion, based on the research you have done, where would South Africa stand in regard to other countries? What do you think of our resource preparedness? Social preparedness? I ask this because a lot of my friends are discussing emigration - mostly my friends find Australia attractive, but would people be better off in Australia in five or ten years’ time? You live in the UK. How do you think the UK will fair overall? I'm curious because the UK has quite a dense population - would it be able to support all those people without cheap fertilisers and oil for tractors etc?

Answer:
On the whole, I agree pretty much with what you say. In resource terms, South Africa is very handily placed with both commercial resources (such as coal and, don't forget, gold which is the first choice during a recession) and the 'living' resources such as weather, food, etc. It really should be in an excellent situation now and well prepared to face the future.

The problem, as you have recognised, is government - the same reason why Zimbabwe is a mess when it should be the "breadbasket of Africa". I am not generally a supporter of empires, despite my nationality, but the British Empire did at least leave both South Africa and Zimbabwe in a good condition to face the future with a competent administrative structure and good transport links. The reason why both countries threw this away was due to corruption in their leaders, the apartheid regime and Mugabe. As Lord Acton said "Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely".

The problem with deciding whether to stay put or emigrate is that the deciding factor with how a country will cope is the one factor we cannot predict - the type of government it will have and how they will react. Who would have thought that the apartheid regime would have brought forth Nelson Mandela? I also think back to when I was growing up in the 1970s and 1980s. The idea that the Soviet Union would disappear before the end of the century would have seemed ridiculous but Gorbachev appeared from nowhere and it happened.

Since we don't know what sort of governments will come along in the next few decades, it is hard to choose a country to move to. In Europe, at the moment, I would expect the Scandinavian countries to produce more sensible governments (it is helpful if you are on the outskirts of a continent and largely ignored by others) but it is not impossible to imagine Norway, with its carefully managed oil resources, becoming the target for a desperate country in the future. When times get bad, governments get bad.

I personally think the UK is going to be a bad place to be in the future. North Sea Oil is running out quickly and we are very densely populated so we are not well placed in the sense of resources. Our government (and the opposition party) seem to be moving so quickly to the authoritarian right that I suspect they will turn to violence and oppression as they try and cope with the future, rather like the USA. That is one reason why I am leaving the UK in July and I hope to live abroad permanently. Initially I will hope to live in the Czech Republic but, because of the uncertainties in the future, I want to get too fixed in my status. I want to be in a position to move if I see problems ahead.

So that sums up my advice to you. I don't think we can look at any country and say it is a safe haven for the future, either because its government may turn irrational or oppressive, or because it may be attacked for its resources, or invaded because of desperation by a neighbour. We can look at some countries such as the UK, USA and China and be pretty sure that they will not be good places to be, but it is not so easy who will be okay. Australia may seem okay now but they could face problems ahead: how will the country fare under global warming - will the desert areas expand? How will they cope with oil shortages since it is not that well endowed with fossil fuels? What will the overpopulated areas of Asia do if they see an apparently peaceful and under-populated country so near?

I don't think that South Africa is necessarily a bad place for the future. I don't know its politics well enough to see where the government is going, whether it can produce a far-sighted leader who will put it on the right path, but it is, at least, well-positioned resource-wise. A good leader in a poor country is not in a position to do much, however wise he may be. I would say keep your options open, be flexible in your own resources and be in a position to move if things turn bad.

Question:
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I hope our government somehow keeps its head on its shoulders in the years to come. Not that you need to know - but much of the political goodwill that was here after Mandela came to power has been squandered – it’s tragic how openly corrupt some of our politicians are and yet they are never held accountable. I'm led to believe that our ministers, in an oil crisis, would think "every man for himself, especially me" and abuse their power and connections for their own advantage and leave the country to suffer. Anyway, as an aside, I studied finance, but through a strange set of events starting teaching temporarily, and since I liked it and was not married, teaching has become a more permanent job for me for the past few years (I teach high school maths).
I've lately wanted to get back into my original career plans and have been furthering my degree to keep my qualifications current - I used to think one day I would work for a big investment bank or something of the sorts. Now I'm doubting whether that will be feasible.

Frankly, those kind of institutions suffer greatly in recessions, and, to be honest, I actually am at the point (after learning more about the world's monetary systems and other things) that most of the financial industry is almost parasitic to the rest of society - it produces very little of social value and yet a massive amount of wealth is diverted to large numbers of people who work in that sector.
If you were to advise broadening one's skills so as to be mobile and employable, or be able to feed oneself, what skills would you recommend acquiring? Which professions ought to do well? Would engineers be in demand in some way? As for more basic skills?
Just curious what your thoughts might be.

Answer:
Finance may yet be a useful trade in the future. With house prices collapsing (in the USA and UK, at least) and recession looming, many people will need advice on what to do with their money.

The occupations that will be useful are those that people can't do without, whatever the situation: doctors, dentists, car mechanics, farmers, police, army. Even sewage workers are essential. My present trade is a graphic designer which is not too useful in a recession - advertising is one area people will cut back on. One reason why I am moving into teaching which will always be around. Trades like carpentry and plumbing will be useful although people will often try and do these things themselves - electricians and gas fitters are better placed since DIY with these can be risky. Engineers, especially if you specialise in renewable energy, will be well placed.

You have to look at the situation as an ordinary person and think what would be useful. In the UK, for instance, dentistry is rapidly becoming private as NHS support is cut back. But people will always get toothache and, in the future, I can see people making a living here by travelling around doing private but cheap dentistry. I've read about yachtsmen who are doctors and dentists and travel the road, financing themselves by doing their work. People will keep their cars going rather than buy new ones and odd job mechanics will have a place.