The Lure of Home

A common fear amongst those studying the effects of peak oil is thought of mobs of people fleeing towns and cities and invading rural areas. In so many science fiction movies, we see motorways clogged with thousands of cars as people panic and run from impending danger. But the difference between these scenarios and peak oil is that they were fleeing from a known and immediate danger – a flood or a nuclear bomb – whereas peak oil is a slow and gradual breakdown with an unknown set of problems and an unknown timescale.

People are notoriously reluctant to move even when things are bad – consider the inhabitants of cities like London and Plymouth who stayed even when they were being bombed during the War, or the people of Naples or San Francisco who live in the shadow of a constant natural threat that will one day destroy them. People prefer the known to the unknown, familiar surroundings to the unfamiliar, friends to strangers, especially when the place they are fleeing to is alien or, in some cases, if they don’t even know where they are going.

There is also, especially in Britain, the infatuation with owning your own home. If you have spent 20 or 30 years to buy your house, and maybe spent thousand of pounds on improving it, you will be very reluctant to leave it without somewhere definite to go to. The house is recognisable and it’s yours. In a time of fear and uncertainty, the four walls and the garden are something to hold onto. It will almost certainly be the bulk of your assets. If you leave it, who knows what will happen to it, who will invade it.

I believe that the vast majority will stay put, hoping that ‘things will recover’ or ‘the government will sort things out’. If and when they do flee, it will probably be for places they know (relatives and friends) or areas relatively close to home. I can’t see thousands jumping in their cars and using whatever petrol they have left to head off into the country. And those that do will probably be the adventurous, motivated people who would be useful in a survival situation.

In a good location, a house is a blessing; in a bad location, it is a curse.